Fifty-seven.
The otherwise pretty boring number 57 has a special meaning these days. The Covid-19 Disease Risk Index has been at 57 in the Czech Republic since November 23. What does it actually mean and what impact can reaching such a value have on the everyday life of Czechs? An attempt to create a transparent system that will make it possible to predict the level of restrictions was introduced by Minister Blatný more than two weeks ago. In creating the system, the authors were inspired by tables and overviews that had already been produced abroad (e.g. Ireland). A quite interesting and perhaps unintended effect was the back-calculation concerning the spring lockdown. With the current system in place in March or April this year, the arrangements would have looked very different. If we had been using the PES (Anti-Epidemic System) then, there would have been no complete shutdown of the economy and we would probably have had more or less a Swedish model. The announced advantage of the new method over the outdated traffic light is that everyone can easily calculate what level of risk we are in. However, its practical use is limited by two factors. One is that not all the data needed for the calculation are available in one place. And if you can verify the index by calculating it yourself, it does not mean that you can use this information to manage your business or plan trips, business meetings and negotiations. With a certain, understandable degree of logic, the final say is given to the government, which, within the powers given to it by the state of emergency, will decide whether the restrictions will be applied as laid down by the system. However, this is where the PES is buried. The anti-epidemic system is not what it has been made out to be; it is merely an instrument to justify the choice of one of the five preset levels of restrictions, possibly in a modified version. A bendable alibi. There have already been indications of manipulation of the facts. Perhaps with good intentions, but perhaps also because the government has long failed to communicate clearly and honestly. When it became clear that Prague was the best off of the regions, someone thought it would be possible not to include it. Or the fact that the regions have different levels of the disease risk index. So why not ignore the overall average and subordinate the index to the regions that are worst off? Likewise the shift in the validity of the restrictions over time. Not on a Monday, but on a Thursday, for example. It's time to get this sorted out and start using the VLK system - the "Virological Calendar" - which already tells us definitively, precisely and clearly what will happen and why. And what won't. And when.