Political uncertainty.
First the British election and then the French election. When Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced on 22 May that elections to the British House of Commons would be held on 4 July 2024, it came as a surprise. A more autumnal date was generally expected and the time for developing well thought out election campaigns was extremely short. Following the announcement of the results of the European Parliament elections, President Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly dissolved the French Parliament and called snap elections, also at a very early date, in early July. This was certainly not an expected and easily predictable move either. The fact that two of Europe's three largest powers have done virtually the same thing and timed it for an identical period is certainly a somewhat risky scenario from a European point of view, and one that could cause political instability on a wider scale. We have already seen many surprises when the rather clear-cut polls of public preferences have not materialised and states have been faced with difficult tasks whose solutions have not been entirely straightforward. If a country was alone in this, there was no great danger. But here we are talking about nearly one hundred and forty million citizens who may find themselves in a kind of political uncertainty. It is not important that only one of the countries in question is a member of the European Union. Perhaps, on the contrary, it is evidence of a contagion spreading across the board. When we consider what will be happening overseas before (and after) the fifth of November this year, it almost looks like an epidemic of insecurity that is spreading widely, whether as a consequence of hybrid warfare, a concomitant of mismanaged mass communication on social media, or a partly justified bitter feeling of prevailing injustice and marked inequality in the fate of individuals or nations. Still, almost nothing has to happen. The European Parliament will continue to function in much the same way, and the newly formed, somewhat suspect, Patriots for Europe group will push through the obligatory 0.8 per cent of its proposals. Keir Starmer will manage the hangover from his epic win and look to the better of his predecessors Tony Blair and Gordon Brown to manage the consequences of Brexit and the inflation crisis. Well, France is just France. Macron, Melenchon and Le Pen should use more constructive instruments for the sake of their country, but they probably will not. So, if the political uncertainty in our part of the world persists, we will be watching with hope to see how the Americans deal with the need and the necessity to put a person worthy of respect in charge who will responsibly fulfil his historically defined role. If this is done successfully, European politics will be calmer and more secure.