Polish elections.
Poland's parliamentary elections mark a significant moment for part of the former Eastern bloc, now known as the V4 grouping. Our northern neighbour, with a population of nearly 40 million, has two-fifths more inhabitants than the rest of the Visegrad Four and represents an area half the size of the combined square kilometres of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Poland has traditionally been a close partner of ours, and the political situation in that country has a direct impact on Czech politics. After the recent elections in Slovakia produced a result that gives little guarantee of democratic development in our eastern neighbours, Poland is all the more interesting and the situation there needs to be understood. For a long time, it seemed that PiS (Law and Justice) was quite in control of the situation and, using instruments that raised some concern, was able to secure victory in the elections. In the end, Jaroslaw Kaczyński did indeed win, but with coalition potential it is not too glorious. So far, it looks like the government line-up will be made up of the Civic Coalition, the Third Way and the Left Party, second to fourth on the tape. That would earn the prime ministership to Donald Tusk, who at sixty-six is an experienced political matador with established prestige and accumulated informal contacts from his five years as president of the European Council. Just as in Slovakia President Caputová holds some of the important cards, so in Poland President Andrzej Duda plays one of the main roles in the government drama. And all indications are that the scenario is not without plot. It is not yet clear who will be empowered to form the government, but it is likely that the maximum permissible terms for credentials and appointments will not be reduced by the president. Time, which is particularly valuable in a possible change of government, will therefore not be lacking. The question remains how the Polish public will perceive the situation and how it will react. Poland's Sejm, with its 460 deputies, is a huge body whose new composition, based on the election results, suggests that Poland will find it difficult and time-consuming to implement the necessary reforms, including those that will enable it to obtain EU funding.
photo: Donald Tusk